* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 07/16/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 28 29 31 32 31 31 34 38 40 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 28 29 31 32 31 31 34 38 40 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 24 23 21 20 19 18 17 16 16 SHEAR (KTS) 17 23 29 31 32 26 28 31 32 26 30 24 27 SHEAR DIR 286 305 309 322 336 343 322 327 318 306 291 290 300 SST (C) 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 136 139 140 140 140 139 141 140 139 143 146 148 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 142 142 141 141 139 141 140 139 142 144 145 144 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.9 -54.8 -54.8 -54.8 -54.8 -54.9 -54.8 -54.9 -54.9 -54.8 -54.6 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 64 61 57 56 58 59 58 55 60 57 57 61 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 4 9 13 10 15 33 32 35 15 18 21 1 200 MB DIV -8 -2 4 8 6 21 16 12 22 52 34 31 20 LAND (KM) 782 715 566 433 327 333 368 329 298 211 88 137 302 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.0 13.2 13.3 13.3 13.7 13.9 14.3 15.0 16.1 17.0 18.2 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 53.2 54.8 56.4 57.9 59.4 62.3 64.9 67.8 70.7 73.8 76.8 79.6 82.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 15 15 15 13 14 14 15 15 15 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 50 58 64 65 62 46 55 61 47 69 95 7 85 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 22. 27. 31. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -2. -7. -11. -18. -25. -30. -33. -33. -33. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. 8. 11. 15. 18. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 9. 13. 15. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 07/16/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 59.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 07/16/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY