* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ELIDA EP062008 07/16/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 70 68 65 57 48 37 28 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 71 70 68 65 57 48 37 28 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 71 70 68 65 59 53 46 40 34 31 28 25 SHEAR (KTS) 16 14 14 14 12 15 12 9 16 9 12 15 22 SHEAR DIR 53 87 107 122 135 155 182 152 170 179 184 185 184 SST (C) 26.5 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.7 25.2 24.0 23.3 23.1 23.4 23.5 23.5 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 127 125 121 116 104 96 94 97 98 98 99 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 -54.9 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 66 66 59 56 56 50 50 45 43 39 37 35 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 14 13 12 10 9 7 7 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 46 47 49 55 57 42 56 28 40 26 26 23 4 200 MB DIV 12 -3 5 -6 -10 -41 -25 -21 -14 -3 -21 -1 9 LAND (KM) 885 950 1028 1090 1161 1347 1533 1711 1915 2131 2060 1798 1524 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.6 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.4 17.7 17.9 18.0 18.0 17.9 17.9 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 114.9 116.2 117.4 118.8 120.1 122.6 125.2 127.8 130.4 132.9 135.3 137.8 140.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 11 12 12 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -11. -16. -22. -25. -28. -30. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -13. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -6. -15. -24. -34. -42. -49. -55. -57. -59. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 0. -2. -5. -13. -22. -33. -42. -49. -55. -57. -59. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP062008 ELIDA 07/16/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062008 ELIDA 07/16/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY