* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * SEVEN EP072008 07/16/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 47 56 63 69 72 74 71 68 63 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 47 56 63 69 72 74 71 68 63 V (KT) LGE mod 30 34 37 40 42 47 53 57 59 58 55 51 46 SHEAR (KTS) 8 10 9 6 12 17 17 16 20 19 12 10 8 SHEAR DIR 31 14 14 33 352 345 9 22 46 55 85 84 91 SST (C) 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.4 27.7 27.2 26.6 25.7 24.8 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 144 148 150 151 151 151 149 141 136 130 121 112 99 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.4 -54.1 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 8 7 9 9 9 7 6 4 3 1 700-500 MB RH 83 81 77 75 77 71 69 73 73 71 66 62 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 13 13 14 14 15 16 17 15 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 39 35 35 33 34 31 39 44 62 64 62 60 57 200 MB DIV 53 78 97 74 76 63 33 46 38 19 25 8 -2 LAND (KM) 585 595 541 498 462 435 414 407 430 511 505 553 633 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.4 10.9 11.5 12.1 13.3 14.4 15.4 16.4 17.5 18.6 19.6 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 94.8 96.0 97.1 98.3 99.5 101.7 103.8 105.7 107.6 109.5 111.6 114.0 116.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 11 11 12 13 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 776 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 33.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 15. 19. 22. 24. 24. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 7. 6. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 19. 29. 36. 43. 46. 46. 42. 39. 33. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 12. 17. 26. 33. 39. 42. 44. 41. 38. 33. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP072008 SEVEN 07/16/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072008 SEVEN 07/16/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY