* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/16/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 59 60 60 60 57 52 49 45 42 38 34 V (KT) LAND 60 59 59 60 60 60 57 52 49 45 42 38 34 V (KT) LGE mod 60 60 59 60 60 62 62 60 57 53 49 45 41 SHEAR (KTS) 8 9 14 20 19 19 21 26 23 18 25 40 51 SHEAR DIR 316 313 310 322 311 293 264 244 220 227 234 251 245 SST (C) 25.7 25.8 26.0 26.2 26.5 26.8 26.3 25.5 25.2 24.2 22.9 20.7 18.6 POT. INT. (KT) 108 110 112 114 118 121 117 110 108 100 92 83 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 88 90 93 95 98 102 99 95 92 86 81 74 70 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 -54.0 -54.8 -54.7 -54.8 -54.6 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 57 55 53 55 54 55 50 48 42 39 39 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 19 20 20 18 15 13 15 15 16 18 20 850 MB ENV VOR 2 34 61 85 108 129 98 42 8 35 33 -22 -12 200 MB DIV 10 9 24 38 41 29 -6 -8 11 -1 15 -1 36 LAND (KM) 840 895 950 1025 1100 1239 1277 1200 1006 889 873 935 1078 LAT (DEG N) 36.8 36.4 35.9 35.4 34.8 34.2 34.6 35.9 37.8 39.5 41.0 42.8 44.8 LONG(DEG W) 60.9 60.7 60.4 59.9 59.4 57.6 55.4 53.1 50.8 48.3 45.6 42.6 39.4 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 6 7 7 8 10 12 13 13 14 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 3 6 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -16. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 8. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -3. -7. -9. -13. -15. -19. -24. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -3. -8. -11. -15. -18. -22. -26. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/16/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/16/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY