* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 07/16/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 34 36 37 40 41 44 43 42 44 48 49 V (KT) LAND 30 33 34 36 37 40 41 44 43 42 44 48 49 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 32 33 32 31 30 30 31 31 30 30 31 SHEAR (KTS) 21 27 29 27 29 18 24 20 29 27 28 22 27 SHEAR DIR 319 316 326 339 336 338 316 284 293 282 304 310 324 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 28.1 27.9 27.9 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 140 139 137 140 137 137 143 147 148 148 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 145 144 142 139 141 137 137 142 144 143 143 139 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.7 -54.5 -54.6 -54.9 -54.3 -54.7 -54.3 -54.7 -54.5 -55.0 -54.3 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 10 9 8 10 8 10 9 10 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 64 59 62 60 61 63 62 59 63 56 59 59 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 16 14 8 12 19 37 38 32 18 8 5 4 200 MB DIV -13 10 19 11 21 2 32 38 36 55 28 23 24 LAND (KM) 514 360 248 232 255 322 237 279 225 32 222 328 152 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.0 13.5 14.0 15.0 16.2 17.5 18.4 19.0 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 56.5 58.2 59.8 61.5 63.1 66.1 69.0 72.0 74.9 77.7 80.4 83.2 86.0 STM SPEED (KT) 20 16 16 16 15 15 14 15 15 14 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 65 61 61 37 35 50 52 47 76 4 6 91 90 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -16. -21. -25. -28. -28. -28. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 14. 14. 16. 17. 21. 22. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 4. 6. 7. 10. 11. 14. 13. 12. 14. 18. 19. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 07/16/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 07/16/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY