* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ELIDA EP062008 07/16/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 68 64 61 51 40 30 25 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 70 68 64 61 51 40 30 25 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 71 70 68 66 60 52 44 38 33 30 27 24 SHEAR (KTS) 13 11 13 10 7 13 11 11 7 8 13 17 15 SHEAR DIR 78 97 125 126 125 159 186 166 186 155 169 165 164 SST (C) 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.8 25.5 24.6 23.4 23.1 23.2 23.5 23.4 23.4 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 128 126 124 122 119 110 97 93 95 98 97 97 100 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 68 62 56 57 55 49 52 46 44 38 39 33 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 15 13 13 11 9 8 8 5 5 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 46 48 53 56 48 53 45 31 43 18 38 19 1 200 MB DIV 4 7 -2 12 -21 -32 -24 -16 9 0 3 -6 -5 LAND (KM) 954 1024 1076 1151 1235 1452 1618 1792 1990 2199 1931 1669 1440 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.9 17.1 17.3 17.4 17.6 18.0 18.1 17.9 17.9 18.1 18.1 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 116.2 117.4 118.6 119.9 121.2 124.0 126.7 129.0 131.2 133.6 136.5 139.0 141.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 13 12 10 11 13 13 11 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -13. -19. -24. -27. -30. -31. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -8. -12. -14. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -2. -4. -13. -23. -34. -40. -49. -53. -58. -59. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -2. -6. -9. -19. -30. -40. -45. -53. -56. -61. -62. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP062008 ELIDA 07/16/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062008 ELIDA 07/16/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY