* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * SEVEN EP072008 07/16/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 45 52 58 61 62 61 61 60 58 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 45 52 58 61 62 61 61 60 58 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 36 38 40 42 43 45 45 44 43 SHEAR (KTS) 14 17 19 17 20 22 22 18 17 17 18 16 14 SHEAR DIR 9 1 360 359 354 352 330 348 354 351 348 12 359 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.3 26.8 26.1 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 151 151 150 148 148 147 143 140 137 132 124 117 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.1 -53.5 -52.9 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 6 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 81 80 75 78 78 71 74 74 77 70 72 65 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 37 38 38 31 26 24 40 43 44 44 29 10 200 MB DIV 72 89 71 76 66 81 52 62 44 64 -1 7 -6 LAND (KM) 600 571 551 564 594 631 621 618 600 591 640 610 591 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.7 11.1 11.4 11.6 12.2 13.0 13.7 14.5 15.4 16.7 17.7 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 96.3 97.6 98.8 100.1 101.4 103.6 105.4 106.6 107.5 108.7 110.4 111.9 113.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 10 8 6 7 9 9 8 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 14. 19. 22. 24. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 20. 26. 30. 31. 31. 31. 29. 28. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 15. 22. 28. 31. 32. 31. 31. 30. 28. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP072008 SEVEN 07/16/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072008 SEVEN 07/16/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY