* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/16/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 61 62 63 62 60 56 52 47 41 37 32 V (KT) LAND 60 61 61 62 63 62 60 56 52 47 41 37 32 V (KT) LGE mod 60 60 60 60 61 62 62 60 56 51 46 44 41 SHEAR (KTS) 11 12 17 20 19 17 14 19 20 21 18 41 52 SHEAR DIR 326 306 312 301 297 263 252 221 223 246 250 244 244 SST (C) 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.2 25.5 25.0 22.7 20.6 19.7 17.7 15.0 POT. INT. (KT) 111 113 116 117 119 116 111 107 92 81 79 75 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 91 94 96 98 101 99 95 93 80 72 71 70 68 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -55.7 -54.8 -54.1 -54.1 -52.8 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 3 1 0 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 54 54 53 55 51 49 49 46 50 46 43 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 19 19 19 16 15 14 14 15 13 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR 24 52 73 102 117 118 80 21 -11 35 28 49 86 200 MB DIV 12 37 25 47 81 18 12 -3 43 21 22 29 18 LAND (KM) 898 973 1048 1123 1200 1270 1166 935 767 733 810 927 1145 LAT (DEG N) 36.3 35.8 35.2 34.9 34.5 34.7 36.2 38.5 40.9 42.8 43.8 45.9 48.7 LONG(DEG W) 60.7 60.2 59.7 58.8 57.8 55.3 53.0 50.5 47.9 45.6 43.6 40.9 37.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 9 9 11 14 15 14 11 11 16 18 HEAT CONTENT 0 1 4 4 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):145/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -19. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 10. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -6. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -16. -20. -26. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -4. -8. -13. -19. -23. -28. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/16/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/16/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY