* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ELIDA EP062008 07/16/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 93 92 89 84 69 54 43 32 24 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 93 92 89 84 69 54 43 32 24 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 93 92 88 82 70 58 49 42 37 33 29 26 SHEAR (KTS) 11 13 13 9 11 10 7 8 7 12 14 16 15 SHEAR DIR 83 109 114 136 149 175 169 172 158 170 171 177 173 SST (C) 26.2 26.0 25.8 25.6 25.3 24.0 23.3 23.1 23.3 23.4 23.3 23.5 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 126 124 122 121 118 103 96 94 96 97 96 98 103 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 61 58 56 54 51 49 48 47 42 40 37 34 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 14 14 13 11 9 9 7 6 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 52 55 57 53 53 56 30 46 33 37 29 13 -4 200 MB DIV 16 6 2 -30 -30 -27 -23 -19 4 -11 11 -13 0 LAND (KM) 1005 1055 1105 1193 1292 1502 1656 1857 2096 2079 1856 1595 1306 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.1 17.3 17.5 17.6 17.9 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.2 18.1 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 117.2 118.3 119.3 120.7 122.1 125.0 127.2 129.7 132.5 135.1 137.2 139.7 142.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 12 13 14 12 11 12 13 11 11 12 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -17. -26. -34. -40. -45. -48. -50. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 5. 8. 10. 10. 8. 6. 4. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 2. -1. -6. -20. -35. -47. -57. -64. -71. -76. -79. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 2. -1. -6. -21. -36. -47. -58. -66. -72. -77. -80. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP062008 ELIDA 07/16/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062008 ELIDA 07/16/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY