* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FAUSTO EP072008 07/16/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 52 58 66 74 82 84 80 81 78 76 V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 52 58 66 74 82 84 80 81 78 76 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 40 42 44 49 53 57 60 62 62 60 58 SHEAR (KTS) 15 12 9 10 14 14 16 10 10 9 9 6 1 SHEAR DIR 21 33 24 20 358 21 14 7 14 21 11 15 267 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.3 26.8 26.2 25.8 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 149 148 148 147 145 140 137 131 125 120 116 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.5 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 82 79 80 79 75 76 75 78 77 75 72 69 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 13 14 15 16 15 16 19 20 19 20 19 20 850 MB ENV VOR 24 22 18 17 17 15 14 37 30 44 39 22 25 200 MB DIV 83 106 91 85 86 56 61 50 52 34 19 16 -13 LAND (KM) 544 562 591 619 647 660 669 693 730 784 716 735 814 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.4 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.7 13.4 14.1 15.0 16.0 17.1 17.8 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 99.0 100.1 101.1 102.3 103.5 105.6 107.0 108.5 110.1 111.6 113.0 114.5 116.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 10 11 12 12 9 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 17. 20. 21. 21. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 11. 14. 11. 14. 12. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 16. 22. 30. 38. 46. 49. 46. 47. 43. 41. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 10. 17. 23. 31. 39. 47. 49. 45. 46. 43. 41. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP072008 FAUSTO 07/16/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072008 FAUSTO 07/16/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY