* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/17/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 61 62 62 62 60 57 53 46 45 39 31 V (KT) LAND 60 60 61 62 62 62 60 57 53 46 45 39 31 V (KT) LGE mod 60 60 60 61 62 63 62 60 55 50 45 42 41 SHEAR (KTS) 14 15 18 16 11 14 20 20 25 40 41 43 35 SHEAR DIR 316 335 307 296 298 256 229 226 245 236 232 230 220 SST (C) 26.1 26.3 26.6 26.6 26.6 25.7 25.2 24.0 21.3 18.6 16.5 12.5 11.7 POT. INT. (KT) 113 116 119 120 120 112 109 100 86 78 74 70 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 94 96 99 101 102 97 94 87 77 71 69 67 67 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.5 -54.6 -55.8 -54.2 -53.1 -52.0 -51.2 -47.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 55 54 54 53 50 45 50 56 61 54 53 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 20 20 19 18 16 15 14 14 13 17 18 15 850 MB ENV VOR 51 81 116 120 120 100 59 37 30 39 59 102 142 200 MB DIV 29 26 35 68 32 8 24 32 47 38 64 25 33 LAND (KM) 992 1068 1145 1212 1276 1238 1019 835 769 856 1041 1343 1286 LAT (DEG N) 35.6 35.1 34.6 34.5 34.3 35.5 37.6 39.9 42.3 44.8 47.5 50.5 53.7 LONG(DEG W) 60.1 59.5 58.8 57.7 56.5 54.0 51.5 48.7 45.6 42.4 38.9 34.6 29.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 10 10 13 15 16 17 17 19 22 22 HEAT CONTENT 2 5 5 6 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):140/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -17. -19. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -3. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -6. -11. -13. -19. -27. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -7. -14. -15. -21. -29. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/17/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/17/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY