* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 07/17/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 45 53 59 63 65 70 74 76 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 39 45 53 59 63 65 64 55 36 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 32 35 39 46 55 61 60 53 35 SHEAR (KTS) 16 14 18 15 11 7 5 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 317 326 331 344 338 336 267 308 284 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.3 27.5 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 136 137 136 130 132 137 139 141 144 148 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 144 140 141 139 131 134 139 139 141 141 143 140 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.7 -54.9 -54.6 -54.3 -54.7 -54.3 -54.5 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 10 10 8 10 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 60 61 62 64 63 66 66 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 19 33 37 38 36 66 82 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 24 19 27 38 19 31 38 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 175 194 213 233 180 89 233 419 301 36 48 -63 -30 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.8 13.0 13.3 13.9 14.7 15.5 16.2 17.2 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 60.5 62.4 64.3 66.1 67.8 70.9 74.2 77.4 80.4 83.4 86.3 88.8 91.0 STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 18 17 16 16 16 15 15 15 14 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 60 31 31 39 47 23 32 61 50 1 25 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 22. 29. 34. 38. 43. 47. 49. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 9. 16. 23. 29. 33. 35. 40. 44. 46. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 07/17/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 07/17/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY