* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ELIDA EP062008 07/17/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 85 78 70 53 38 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 89 85 78 70 53 38 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 91 88 83 77 64 53 44 38 33 29 25 22 SHEAR (KTS) 16 16 15 14 13 11 10 11 15 16 19 20 19 SHEAR DIR 110 117 138 154 170 192 168 170 170 186 176 194 206 SST (C) 25.9 25.8 25.6 25.3 24.7 23.5 23.2 23.1 23.4 23.4 23.5 23.7 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 123 122 120 117 111 98 95 94 97 97 98 100 102 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 58 59 55 51 51 50 46 44 40 40 38 38 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 13 13 12 10 8 7 6 6 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 54 58 50 49 46 42 35 42 24 38 15 6 -11 200 MB DIV 8 1 -30 -35 -45 -21 -23 -1 10 -10 5 3 2 LAND (KM) 1055 1114 1182 1277 1381 1573 1759 1966 2205 1952 1733 1492 1250 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.4 17.5 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.0 18.0 18.1 18.1 18.0 18.0 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 118.4 119.5 120.6 122.0 123.4 126.2 128.5 131.0 133.8 136.3 138.4 140.7 143.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 12 11 12 13 11 10 11 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -20. -29. -36. -42. -47. -49. -51. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -3. -8. -15. -30. -44. -56. -66. -72. -80. -83. -85. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -7. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -5. -12. -20. -37. -52. -63. -72. -77. -83. -87. -89. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP062008 ELIDA 07/17/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062008 ELIDA 07/17/08 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY