* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FAUSTO EP072008 07/17/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 47 54 60 66 74 80 81 79 73 71 69 66 V (KT) LAND 40 47 54 60 66 74 80 81 79 73 71 69 66 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 49 52 56 63 67 69 68 66 64 61 58 SHEAR (KTS) 10 13 12 11 12 12 15 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 57 44 39 16 30 40 44 51 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.6 27.2 26.8 26.5 26.1 25.5 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 149 150 147 141 139 135 132 128 124 118 112 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.0 -53.5 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 8 7 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 83 81 76 74 76 76 74 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 16 14 14 15 15 15 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 14 13 11 22 21 31 34 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 117 98 94 86 73 41 63 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 577 608 641 633 645 691 747 820 866 877 928 1001 1099 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.9 12.2 12.8 13.3 14.0 14.3 14.9 15.6 16.3 17.1 17.8 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 101.0 102.4 103.8 105.1 106.4 108.3 109.6 111.1 112.9 114.6 116.4 118.4 120.6 STM SPEED (KT) 17 14 14 14 12 8 7 8 9 9 10 11 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 388 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 14. 16. 16. 16. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 3. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 18. 23. 32. 37. 39. 39. 33. 31. 29. 25. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 7. 14. 20. 26. 34. 40. 41. 39. 33. 31. 29. 26. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP072008 FAUSTO 07/17/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072008 FAUSTO 07/17/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY