* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/17/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 48 48 48 48 47 45 45 43 42 37 28 V (KT) LAND 50 48 48 48 48 48 47 45 45 43 42 37 28 V (KT) LGE mod 50 48 47 47 48 50 51 51 48 46 44 42 41 SHEAR (KTS) 15 19 17 13 16 15 19 18 21 36 39 43 40 SHEAR DIR 324 302 299 278 262 241 247 240 273 237 231 211 193 SST (C) 26.5 26.6 26.8 26.5 26.3 25.5 24.9 22.5 20.1 17.4 14.1 11.3 12.1 POT. INT. (KT) 118 119 121 119 117 111 107 91 82 75 71 69 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 100 102 100 100 96 93 81 74 70 68 67 67 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -55.2 -55.1 -54.6 -52.9 -50.7 -49.6 -48.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 53 53 51 51 49 45 47 50 46 49 59 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 18 18 17 15 13 13 13 14 16 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 82 119 128 117 117 93 42 -1 51 76 103 152 164 200 MB DIV 19 28 52 47 8 27 8 23 16 42 35 59 40 LAND (KM) 1092 1159 1229 1261 1274 1166 932 786 790 932 1177 1496 1121 LAT (DEG N) 34.8 34.5 34.2 34.4 34.6 36.2 38.6 41.1 43.5 46.2 49.4 52.6 55.9 LONG(DEG W) 59.6 58.7 57.8 56.7 55.5 53.0 50.1 47.1 44.1 40.7 36.9 32.4 27.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 10 11 15 17 16 17 19 21 22 22 HEAT CONTENT 7 5 7 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):150/ 9 CX,CY: 4/ -7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 9. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -12. -19. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -7. -8. -13. -21. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/17/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/17/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY