* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 07/17/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 46 51 56 58 59 62 65 64 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 46 51 56 58 59 62 65 54 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 34 37 42 47 51 51 52 54 47 SHEAR (KTS) 15 13 10 9 12 8 17 20 30 17 20 17 26 SHEAR DIR 331 325 334 332 344 303 258 263 271 290 305 284 280 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.8 28.1 28.5 28.7 28.8 29.0 28.3 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 135 137 137 136 140 146 149 150 152 141 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 135 136 137 137 135 140 145 146 144 144 131 121 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.9 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 -54.3 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 9 8 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 64 64 62 62 65 63 63 62 61 62 59 60 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 18 32 28 36 47 53 63 34 15 -5 -23 -17 -26 200 MB DIV 29 20 19 28 15 40 40 42 46 33 29 31 23 LAND (KM) 177 200 253 264 212 222 292 111 95 308 177 51 13 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.5 12.7 13.0 13.2 14.2 15.4 16.8 18.1 19.3 20.2 20.9 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 62.4 63.8 65.2 66.6 67.9 70.6 73.4 76.3 79.2 81.9 84.3 86.4 88.5 STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 14 13 14 14 15 16 15 13 12 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 30 29 35 48 54 34 55 90 8 88 26 72 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -6. -7. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 15. 21. 26. 29. 31. 34. 37. 36. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 21. 26. 28. 29. 32. 35. 34. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 07/17/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 07/17/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY