* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FAUSTO EP072008 07/17/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 62 67 71 77 80 81 76 70 64 60 54 V (KT) LAND 50 57 62 67 71 77 80 81 76 70 64 60 54 V (KT) LGE mod 50 56 61 66 69 75 77 76 73 70 66 63 59 SHEAR (KTS) 13 17 15 11 12 14 15 12 14 15 9 7 3 SHEAR DIR 49 40 36 33 39 41 64 68 56 60 68 49 100 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.8 26.4 25.9 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 149 148 147 143 138 135 132 132 128 123 115 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.3 -54.0 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 83 82 78 75 73 72 73 76 74 70 67 63 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 15 14 15 15 15 16 14 13 11 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 8 9 13 22 18 18 37 50 50 46 50 43 40 200 MB DIV 94 88 82 82 57 54 37 28 42 10 0 -8 -3 LAND (KM) 672 698 714 731 758 830 907 985 984 995 1082 1163 1286 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.4 12.7 13.2 13.6 14.1 14.8 15.6 16.3 17.1 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 102.7 104.0 105.2 106.3 107.4 109.4 111.0 112.4 113.8 115.5 117.6 119.9 122.2 STM SPEED (KT) 16 13 12 11 11 9 8 7 8 10 11 12 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 365 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -6. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 17. 21. 28. 31. 31. 27. 21. 15. 10. 5. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 7. 12. 17. 21. 27. 30. 31. 26. 20. 14. 10. 4. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP072008 FAUSTO 07/17/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072008 FAUSTO 07/17/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY