* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/17/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 50 50 49 49 48 45 45 44 40 35 28 V (KT) LAND 50 49 50 50 49 49 48 45 45 44 40 35 28 V (KT) LGE mod 50 49 49 50 50 52 52 50 47 45 44 43 43 SHEAR (KTS) 21 19 15 16 16 18 13 17 20 37 38 38 31 SHEAR DIR 315 304 300 270 278 236 239 239 218 224 217 202 195 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.3 25.8 25.3 24.3 22.0 19.1 16.6 12.4 11.5 12.4 POT. INT. (KT) 121 121 122 117 113 110 102 89 79 75 70 69 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 101 102 103 101 97 95 89 79 73 70 68 67 67 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.9 -54.5 -55.8 -55.4 -54.4 -52.2 -51.5 -49.3 -48.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 56 56 56 54 46 46 44 41 37 47 60 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 19 18 17 14 13 12 13 14 13 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 113 124 116 104 89 42 9 -25 16 52 96 161 205 200 MB DIV 32 48 34 6 6 32 -1 30 29 60 34 66 72 LAND (KM) 1170 1232 1297 1265 1242 1050 893 807 848 1028 1350 1293 1021 LAT (DEG N) 34.3 34.2 34.0 34.7 35.3 37.3 39.4 41.8 44.4 47.4 50.6 54.1 57.7 LONG(DEG W) 58.9 57.9 56.8 55.6 54.4 51.7 48.5 45.6 42.7 39.1 34.5 29.8 24.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 12 13 16 16 17 18 21 22 22 23 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):145/ 8 CX,CY: 5/ -6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 12. 12. 13. 13. 11. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. -6. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -3. -5. -9. -14. -20. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -5. -6. -10. -15. -22. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/17/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/17/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY