* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 07/17/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 36 41 47 51 53 57 59 63 61 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 36 41 47 51 53 57 59 45 47 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 32 34 36 40 42 43 45 36 42 SHEAR (KTS) 20 17 15 18 17 13 18 21 20 16 17 15 19 SHEAR DIR 319 328 320 324 327 259 273 254 286 281 312 292 310 SST (C) 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.3 28.6 28.8 29.0 28.5 27.7 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 137 137 136 137 143 147 150 153 144 133 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 137 137 137 136 136 142 146 146 145 135 123 123 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.5 -54.4 -54.7 -54.9 -54.3 -54.6 -54.0 -54.4 -53.7 -54.0 -53.6 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 10 9 8 10 9 10 9 11 9 11 9 700-500 MB RH 67 62 62 62 63 63 63 60 61 61 61 56 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 8 7 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 30 25 32 45 47 60 50 26 -2 -13 -18 -32 -37 200 MB DIV 9 23 38 30 20 28 55 38 26 26 11 20 25 LAND (KM) 212 257 266 223 191 277 207 47 305 206 86 -20 108 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.9 13.1 13.5 13.8 14.9 16.2 17.6 18.9 20.0 20.7 21.3 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 64.2 65.6 66.9 68.3 69.7 72.4 75.2 78.1 81.1 83.7 86.1 88.4 90.7 STM SPEED (KT) 16 13 13 14 14 14 15 15 15 13 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 31 39 53 53 40 47 79 10 22 5 80 9999 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -9. -9. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 11. 17. 22. 24. 28. 30. 34. 34. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 6. 11. 17. 21. 23. 27. 29. 33. 31. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 07/17/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 07/17/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY