* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL952008 07/17/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 38 46 54 60 62 64 66 67 66 V (KT) LAND 25 27 26 26 26 27 27 34 36 38 40 41 40 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 24 25 26 26 27 33 38 41 42 43 43 SHEAR (KTS) 7 6 6 4 5 9 11 16 19 19 19 18 19 SHEAR DIR 330 26 91 125 120 156 153 140 124 116 114 119 122 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.6 28.9 29.2 29.5 29.4 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.3 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 140 146 151 156 161 159 151 151 148 142 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 136 138 144 149 155 161 159 151 152 148 141 137 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.0 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -53.6 -54.0 -53.5 -54.0 -53.8 -54.3 -53.8 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 10 8 7 10 8 10 8 10 8 10 9 700-500 MB RH 74 73 77 72 71 73 71 68 69 68 71 68 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 12 10 9 8 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 55 61 61 63 57 66 62 35 -3 -21 -28 -23 200 MB DIV 54 78 65 68 47 34 14 25 24 33 29 40 -1 LAND (KM) 162 37 -86 -210 -153 -100 -34 117 147 238 388 519 679 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.6 14.4 14.2 13.9 13.7 13.5 LONG(DEG W) 82.0 83.2 84.3 85.5 86.6 88.9 91.4 93.9 96.5 99.3 102.0 104.7 107.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 14 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 39 4 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 30. 34. 37. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 9. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 29. 36. 38. 41. 43. 44. 43. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 6. 10. 13. 21. 29. 35. 37. 39. 41. 42. 41. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952008 INVEST 07/17/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.5 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952008 INVEST 07/17/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY