* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FAUSTO EP072008 07/17/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 61 65 67 73 75 73 67 60 55 51 48 V (KT) LAND 50 56 61 65 67 73 75 73 67 60 55 51 48 V (KT) LGE mod 50 54 57 59 61 63 63 62 59 57 55 52 50 SHEAR (KTS) 14 16 14 14 14 18 18 13 14 14 10 8 5 SHEAR DIR 34 40 41 28 31 42 54 47 42 54 16 24 301 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.6 27.2 27.0 27.0 26.4 25.9 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 148 146 146 144 140 135 134 134 128 123 116 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.9 -53.2 -53.6 -53.7 -53.0 -53.8 -53.2 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 83 79 77 74 75 77 73 72 73 68 65 58 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 15 15 15 16 17 16 14 12 10 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 12 18 21 15 10 20 25 29 33 29 32 17 9 200 MB DIV 99 97 103 60 34 63 30 45 19 9 -11 -19 -16 LAND (KM) 728 755 779 798 822 858 931 1033 1061 1090 1128 1194 1323 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.5 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.9 13.4 13.9 14.4 15.1 16.2 16.9 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 103.5 104.9 106.2 107.1 108.0 109.4 111.1 112.8 114.6 116.3 118.1 120.1 122.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 11 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 467 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. -3. -5. -8. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 14. 19. 22. 21. 15. 10. 5. 0. -3. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 11. 15. 17. 23. 25. 23. 17. 10. 5. 1. -2. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP072008 FAUSTO 07/17/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072008 FAUSTO 07/17/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY