* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/17/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 52 53 53 52 51 47 46 49 50 45 38 V (KT) LAND 50 51 52 53 53 52 51 47 46 49 50 45 38 V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 52 53 53 53 52 49 47 45 43 43 43 SHEAR (KTS) 17 12 14 16 11 14 12 16 18 38 38 31 27 SHEAR DIR 305 284 274 276 230 233 222 247 237 203 187 193 200 SST (C) 27.0 26.7 26.5 25.9 25.5 25.1 23.8 21.9 18.9 15.0 11.5 12.6 12.2 POT. INT. (KT) 124 121 119 114 111 108 98 89 80 74 70 70 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 102 102 99 96 93 85 79 74 70 68 67 67 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -54.2 -54.7 -54.2 -55.3 -54.7 -54.5 -53.5 -53.1 -51.3 -49.0 -47.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 53 53 53 55 52 48 48 45 51 54 51 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 19 18 18 16 15 15 15 23 29 27 24 850 MB ENV VOR 119 120 108 93 73 7 -25 -2 52 89 160 209 230 200 MB DIV 32 44 7 8 24 13 26 35 60 55 65 53 61 LAND (KM) 1258 1292 1302 1261 1189 972 871 860 969 1212 1393 988 718 LAT (DEG N) 33.9 34.1 34.3 35.2 36.0 38.2 40.0 42.0 44.8 48.5 53.0 56.2 58.3 LONG(DEG W) 57.8 56.7 55.6 54.3 53.0 50.3 47.5 44.5 40.9 36.5 31.0 25.0 18.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 11 14 14 15 15 17 22 26 26 22 20 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 10 CX,CY: 9/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. 1. 5. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. -1. -2. 1. 2. -3. -10. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -3. -4. -1. 1. -5. -12. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/17/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/17/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY