* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 07/17/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 35 41 46 51 57 61 66 70 72 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 35 41 46 51 57 61 47 51 53 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 31 33 37 40 45 35 46 55 SHEAR (KTS) 21 22 22 21 15 16 13 21 5 8 5 2 1 SHEAR DIR 334 326 328 329 315 278 290 289 325 305 120 319 328 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.6 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.8 28.2 27.7 28.1 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 135 133 133 140 143 148 150 141 134 138 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 138 136 133 133 140 143 146 147 134 125 127 132 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 10 9 10 9 10 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 64 63 66 64 66 66 63 63 65 67 66 63 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 15 19 27 24 35 57 47 25 11 6 -6 -17 -4 200 MB DIV 15 44 34 22 45 54 60 36 31 17 48 38 17 LAND (KM) 255 219 163 177 178 319 128 254 279 56 4 192 441 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.7 14.1 15.2 16.6 18.0 19.3 20.3 21.3 22.4 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 66.1 67.6 69.0 70.4 71.8 74.5 77.6 80.7 83.9 86.7 89.3 91.4 93.4 STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 14 14 14 15 16 16 15 14 12 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 44 53 42 30 34 61 89 37 12 68 0 26 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -5. -4. -2. 0. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 10. 16. 22. 28. 33. 39. 42. 45. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 5. 11. 16. 21. 27. 31. 36. 40. 42. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 07/17/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 07/17/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY