* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL952008 07/17/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 39 46 53 60 63 65 66 67 67 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 26 27 30 38 40 43 44 44 44 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 34 39 41 42 42 42 SHEAR (KTS) 7 5 6 5 6 8 14 13 22 14 19 15 17 SHEAR DIR 30 77 98 99 134 193 154 135 122 112 108 116 113 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.4 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.6 29.1 28.9 28.9 28.4 28.1 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 143 149 154 158 163 155 151 151 143 139 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 137 141 148 154 159 164 155 152 152 142 137 135 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.4 -53.9 -54.1 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 7 10 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 75 77 74 72 70 71 68 70 68 66 67 70 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 11 10 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 50 55 54 54 69 61 56 30 0 -15 -10 -10 200 MB DIV 78 79 63 49 51 24 27 63 59 48 37 37 46 LAND (KM) 100 -21 -151 -195 -119 -65 12 138 167 313 463 594 768 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.7 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.3 14.7 14.7 14.5 14.2 13.9 13.6 13.2 LONG(DEG W) 82.5 83.7 84.9 86.1 87.3 89.9 92.6 95.3 98.2 101.0 103.6 106.0 108.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 14 13 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 5 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 19. 25. 30. 34. 37. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 2. 0. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 27. 35. 40. 43. 44. 45. 44. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 14. 21. 28. 35. 38. 40. 41. 42. 42. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952008 INVEST 07/17/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 49% is 4.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 42% is 5.4 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952008 INVEST 07/17/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY