* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL962008 07/17/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 24 26 28 30 34 37 41 43 43 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 24 24 25 26 31 35 38 40 41 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 21 24 25 30 34 39 44 48 SHEAR (KTS) 8 10 15 17 10 9 9 3 2 4 5 11 15 SHEAR DIR 358 306 323 352 4 337 29 302 273 228 51 101 111 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.7 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 124 122 121 120 118 117 116 117 119 123 121 119 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 101 100 99 97 95 94 96 99 104 103 99 97 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 7 6 10 8 10 8 9 8 10 9 8 700-500 MB RH 38 38 39 40 41 38 45 46 53 49 49 48 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 8 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -40 -64 -76 -72 -99 -93 -112 -83 -78 -36 -25 -41 200 MB DIV -30 -18 -19 -18 -38 -8 -22 -14 -8 13 -8 14 34 LAND (KM) 104 95 74 50 26 -7 -21 -14 29 162 292 396 426 LAT (DEG N) 30.5 30.8 31.1 31.5 31.8 32.2 32.6 32.8 32.9 32.6 32.3 32.1 32.5 LONG(DEG W) 80.3 80.5 80.6 80.7 80.8 80.9 80.7 80.2 79.2 77.5 75.5 73.7 72.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 4 3 2 2 3 5 8 8 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 6 3 2 1 0 0 9999 0 0 14 12 6 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 17. 18. 19. 18. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 8. 11. 15. 18. 22. 24. 26. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 17. 21. 23. 23. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962008 INVEST 07/17/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -24.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962008 INVEST 07/17/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY