* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ELIDA EP062008 07/17/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 62 54 46 39 29 24 20 19 18 16 19 20 V (KT) LAND 70 62 54 46 39 29 24 20 19 18 16 19 20 V (KT) LGE mod 70 64 59 54 50 44 39 36 35 33 32 30 29 SHEAR (KTS) 10 12 17 14 12 12 8 11 11 15 15 15 19 SHEAR DIR 121 133 138 157 158 168 165 180 162 163 170 165 184 SST (C) 25.3 24.8 24.3 24.1 23.9 23.8 24.2 24.3 24.1 24.3 24.7 25.0 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 117 112 107 104 102 101 105 107 104 107 111 115 113 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.7 -54.4 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 47 47 47 48 46 47 45 43 41 39 36 35 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 10 9 10 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 53 54 57 56 49 60 54 55 43 31 23 6 -1 200 MB DIV -33 -44 -31 -19 -29 -23 0 -17 1 -10 -7 -10 -18 LAND (KM) 1361 1474 1582 1671 1764 1970 2200 2085 1829 1579 1325 1023 702 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.1 16.8 16.6 16.4 16.1 15.8 15.9 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 122.6 124.0 125.3 126.6 127.8 130.3 132.8 135.3 137.8 140.3 142.9 145.9 149.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 15 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -15. -20. -24. -27. -29. -30. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -20. -25. -33. -38. -43. -45. -48. -50. -48. -46. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -8. -16. -24. -31. -41. -46. -50. -51. -52. -53. -51. -50. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP062008 ELIDA 07/17/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -31.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062008 ELIDA 07/17/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY