* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/18/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 53 54 53 53 52 49 44 41 39 36 31 V (KT) LAND 50 52 53 54 53 53 52 49 44 41 39 36 31 V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 52 52 53 52 51 48 46 44 43 44 44 SHEAR (KTS) 15 9 13 10 16 13 16 14 21 33 33 26 24 SHEAR DIR 314 283 274 262 245 251 252 247 233 195 190 190 187 SST (C) 26.9 26.5 26.1 25.6 25.3 24.8 23.1 20.3 17.3 12.8 12.5 12.1 11.8 POT. INT. (KT) 124 119 115 111 109 105 95 83 77 73 72 69 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 102 99 96 94 91 84 76 72 70 69 66 64 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.2 -54.7 -54.1 -54.4 -55.4 -54.2 -53.2 -51.5 -50.5 -48.7 -48.5 -48.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 59 59 53 51 48 50 45 42 46 53 61 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 19 19 18 17 16 17 17 14 16 18 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 106 96 78 66 37 -9 -36 64 85 112 204 237 223 200 MB DIV 24 9 28 35 28 38 35 42 11 14 46 53 56 LAND (KM) 1353 1339 1333 1234 1142 984 882 934 1139 1500 1038 811 584 LAT (DEG N) 33.7 34.2 34.7 35.6 36.5 38.4 40.7 43.2 46.3 50.5 55.8 59.3 60.6 LONG(DEG W) 56.0 54.8 53.6 52.5 51.4 48.9 45.9 42.3 37.9 32.4 25.9 19.6 14.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 15 17 20 25 31 29 19 14 HEAT CONTENT 7 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 15 CX,CY: 15/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 445 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -17. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. -4. -7. -9. -11. -17. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. -1. -6. -9. -11. -14. -19. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/18/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/18/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY