* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 07/18/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 36 39 43 48 53 56 58 61 64 66 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 36 39 43 48 53 56 58 61 64 66 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 32 34 38 43 48 54 60 65 SHEAR (KTS) 22 22 21 15 10 13 12 14 4 13 12 15 13 SHEAR DIR 333 323 318 316 278 294 290 323 282 2 344 340 305 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.6 28.8 29.1 28.5 28.3 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 134 135 138 143 147 150 155 145 141 147 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 133 132 133 137 142 145 146 148 134 128 131 128 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.7 -54.7 -54.3 -54.1 -54.6 -54.0 -54.0 -53.2 -53.6 -53.3 -53.9 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 10 10 9 11 9 10 8 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 67 66 65 68 67 64 61 60 67 63 61 62 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 21 17 24 32 29 31 11 1 -12 -33 -39 -59 200 MB DIV 42 49 40 64 39 32 23 7 16 13 20 18 -2 LAND (KM) 207 182 202 216 302 192 56 307 129 98 188 362 355 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.6 13.9 14.5 15.0 16.2 17.7 19.2 20.7 22.0 23.3 24.6 25.9 LONG(DEG W) 68.0 69.2 70.4 71.6 72.8 75.5 78.4 81.2 83.8 86.2 88.0 89.5 90.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 12 13 14 15 15 15 14 12 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 55 43 33 34 50 80 21 62 24 51 5 32 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 28. 31. 35. 37. 39. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 19. 23. 26. 28. 31. 34. 36. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 07/18/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 07/18/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY