* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL952008 07/18/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 40 44 49 57 64 69 72 74 76 75 74 V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 30 35 37 38 38 36 V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 31 36 42 46 50 55 SHEAR (KTS) 3 6 4 2 4 4 8 14 11 11 8 6 8 SHEAR DIR 26 84 41 89 186 173 194 118 116 120 107 114 160 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.0 29.2 29.2 28.1 27.4 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 138 140 145 149 151 156 160 153 156 156 139 130 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 137 143 148 150 157 161 152 156 155 136 125 122 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.4 -54.0 -52.9 -53.8 -53.0 -53.4 -53.0 -53.5 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 10 10 8 11 9 11 6 10 8 8 700-500 MB RH 78 76 74 71 74 70 66 69 70 71 69 72 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 11 10 10 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 40 38 42 46 44 34 21 6 -10 -18 -25 -26 200 MB DIV 84 54 40 33 37 31 42 34 34 26 44 27 -2 LAND (KM) 43 -75 -184 -142 -108 -133 0 -18 72 207 326 472 637 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.5 14.7 15.2 15.7 15.9 15.8 15.7 15.6 15.6 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 83.1 84.2 85.3 86.6 87.8 90.5 93.5 96.4 99.2 102.0 104.6 107.1 109.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 12 13 14 15 13 13 13 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 4 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 23. 28. 31. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 12. 11. 11. 11. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 25. 32. 39. 44. 47. 49. 48. 46. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 10. 14. 19. 27. 34. 39. 42. 44. 46. 45. 44. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952008 INVEST 07/18/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 50% is 4.1 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952008 INVEST 07/18/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY