* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL962008 07/18/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 24 26 29 33 37 40 43 46 50 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 22 25 26 26 27 32 35 38 43 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 24 26 26 27 33 38 45 49 SHEAR (KTS) 9 17 16 6 6 6 2 4 7 4 3 6 8 SHEAR DIR 296 312 346 17 318 18 234 260 214 244 54 316 64 SST (C) 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.4 26.7 26.1 26.5 26.3 20.0 POT. INT. (KT) 122 121 120 119 118 116 115 116 121 115 120 118 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 101 101 99 98 97 95 95 97 102 99 103 101 74 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 -53.1 -53.6 -53.4 -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 6 5 9 10 6 10 6 9 7 9 6 6 700-500 MB RH 39 37 38 40 38 41 46 48 49 54 52 49 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 10 9 10 10 9 10 10 8 8 14 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -63 -72 -63 -72 -80 -81 -74 -65 -18 21 54 98 200 MB DIV -28 -19 -20 -42 -29 -5 -1 14 21 16 27 34 28 LAND (KM) 100 72 39 10 -21 -64 -95 -91 -16 77 294 415 274 LAT (DEG N) 30.8 31.2 31.5 31.9 32.2 32.7 33.3 33.9 34.3 34.8 35.9 37.6 40.3 LONG(DEG W) 80.4 80.6 80.8 81.0 81.1 81.2 80.9 80.0 77.9 75.4 72.6 70.0 67.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 7 10 12 13 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 1 5 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 7. 12. 16. 18. 20. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 16. 18. 18. 19. 20. 19. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 18. 21. 24. 27. 33. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 13. 17. 20. 23. 26. 30. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962008 INVEST 07/18/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -27.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962008 INVEST 07/18/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY