* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ELIDA EP062008 07/18/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 62 54 46 40 31 24 20 17 19 19 21 24 V (KT) LAND 70 62 54 46 40 31 24 20 17 19 19 21 24 V (KT) LGE mod 70 63 58 53 49 43 39 36 34 32 31 30 29 SHEAR (KTS) 13 16 13 10 8 6 11 11 12 8 10 9 7 SHEAR DIR 123 133 155 151 157 187 167 175 163 171 140 165 181 SST (C) 24.7 24.2 24.0 23.8 23.8 23.8 24.2 24.1 24.1 24.3 24.6 24.7 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 111 106 104 101 101 101 105 105 105 107 111 112 114 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -54.4 -54.2 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 45 45 46 45 44 50 45 43 39 41 36 37 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 10 10 10 8 8 7 8 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 57 62 61 54 54 65 57 58 31 30 2 -3 -15 200 MB DIV -25 -5 -4 -23 -36 -7 0 0 7 1 0 5 0 LAND (KM) 1471 1574 1666 1768 1874 2078 2216 1949 1671 1382 1094 768 460 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.2 17.1 16.8 16.6 16.5 16.5 16.6 16.6 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 124.0 125.3 126.6 127.9 129.2 131.6 134.0 136.6 139.3 142.1 144.9 148.2 151.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 15 16 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -17. -22. -26. -29. -30. -31. -31. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -7. -5. -7. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -21. -26. -34. -41. -44. -49. -47. -48. -46. -44. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -8. -16. -24. -30. -39. -46. -50. -53. -51. -51. -49. -46. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP062008 ELIDA 07/18/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062008 ELIDA 07/18/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY