* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FAUSTO EP072008 07/18/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 65 67 70 70 70 67 60 58 54 48 40 V (KT) LAND 60 63 65 67 70 70 70 67 60 58 54 48 40 V (KT) LGE mod 60 63 66 67 68 67 65 62 58 55 51 48 43 SHEAR (KTS) 14 15 12 16 14 15 11 14 12 8 5 9 7 SHEAR DIR 19 23 32 29 33 50 44 39 52 15 46 287 220 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.4 26.9 26.7 26.4 25.9 25.3 24.4 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 144 143 142 138 132 130 128 123 116 107 94 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -52.7 -53.5 -52.7 -53.2 -52.9 -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 79 78 80 78 76 71 71 70 65 61 54 53 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 17 17 18 18 18 17 15 15 14 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR 17 14 14 12 20 15 29 27 28 36 40 27 -4 200 MB DIV 89 53 45 46 68 29 37 1 30 0 8 -10 -9 LAND (KM) 641 664 694 727 757 830 895 893 940 1021 1097 1204 1299 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.1 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.4 15.2 15.9 16.6 17.3 18.1 18.9 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 105.4 106.4 107.4 108.3 109.1 110.8 112.5 114.2 116.0 118.0 120.1 122.1 124.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 8 9 9 9 9 10 11 10 10 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -2. -1. -3. -4. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 15. 12. 4. 1. -4. -10. -18. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 7. 10. 10. 10. 7. 0. -2. -6. -12. -20. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP072008 FAUSTO 07/18/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072008 FAUSTO 07/18/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY