* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/18/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 53 53 53 53 52 47 43 43 39 34 26 V (KT) LAND 50 51 53 53 53 53 52 47 43 43 39 34 26 V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 51 52 52 51 49 45 42 41 41 42 42 SHEAR (KTS) 13 15 12 16 18 19 23 28 41 47 28 28 31 SHEAR DIR 284 279 249 252 227 240 233 232 231 221 219 223 212 SST (C) 26.3 25.9 25.4 25.1 25.0 23.6 20.7 17.9 14.3 12.5 12.1 10.8 10.2 POT. INT. (KT) 118 114 110 108 107 98 85 78 73 73 72 67 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 98 95 93 93 86 77 72 70 70 69 65 63 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.6 -54.1 -54.3 -55.0 -55.0 -54.0 -53.0 -51.4 -49.7 -49.0 -48.4 -48.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 58 55 52 48 46 52 48 47 52 63 64 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 19 18 17 17 18 17 16 19 20 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR 101 90 72 47 20 -1 34 60 54 131 182 128 90 200 MB DIV 11 38 37 36 37 34 44 11 25 42 48 16 21 LAND (KM) 1329 1283 1203 1100 1010 901 928 1122 1435 1134 811 612 555 LAT (DEG N) 34.4 35.2 35.9 37.0 38.0 40.1 42.8 45.6 49.0 53.4 58.9 62.5 63.3 LONG(DEG W) 54.5 53.3 52.0 50.8 49.5 46.6 42.7 38.4 33.4 27.2 19.7 12.7 7.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 15 18 20 23 27 32 30 18 12 HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 87/ 14 CX,CY: 14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 438 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 14. 15. 15. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. -20. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -2. -6. -5. -9. -15. -22. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. -3. -7. -7. -11. -16. -24. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/18/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/18/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY