* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 07/18/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 46 51 57 62 66 69 71 71 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 46 51 57 62 39 44 46 47 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 31 33 36 41 46 33 41 49 57 SHEAR (KTS) 23 21 15 11 14 9 16 5 2 10 6 5 11 SHEAR DIR 321 315 332 269 276 301 305 342 297 118 304 330 337 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.1 27.7 28.0 28.5 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 136 133 135 137 139 142 144 148 139 133 137 144 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 134 135 137 139 141 143 144 132 124 125 129 123 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.8 -54.4 -54.1 -54.4 -54.2 -53.9 -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 11 10 11 9 10 9 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 66 64 67 69 65 63 65 65 65 68 67 64 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 8 9 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 24 18 21 29 39 40 28 25 22 5 -6 7 5 200 MB DIV 51 33 63 57 43 61 10 30 26 53 30 15 -1 LAND (KM) 164 168 207 340 311 187 326 317 30 -43 159 385 330 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.9 14.2 14.7 15.1 16.3 17.5 18.8 19.8 20.8 21.9 23.3 24.4 LONG(DEG W) 69.5 71.0 72.5 74.0 75.4 78.5 81.6 84.5 87.1 89.5 91.5 93.1 94.3 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 15 16 16 14 13 12 10 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 37 28 40 53 62 90 75 41 50 9999 4 49 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 19. 27. 34. 39. 42. 44. 44. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 21. 27. 32. 36. 39. 41. 41. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 07/18/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 07/18/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY