* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL962008 07/18/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 24 27 28 34 39 45 52 55 52 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 22 24 26 26 32 38 45 49 45 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 20 23 25 26 31 37 43 49 51 SHEAR (KTS) 16 17 10 7 9 5 2 4 1 7 8 12 11 SHEAR DIR 324 349 21 350 354 65 211 179 345 349 291 326 242 SST (C) 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.6 26.4 26.2 26.7 24.4 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 122 121 120 119 117 117 117 119 118 117 122 103 84 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 100 99 98 97 96 97 101 101 101 105 89 76 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -54.1 -54.7 -55.0 -55.2 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 10 11 8 10 7 9 7 10 7 7 4 700-500 MB RH 37 37 38 38 38 43 46 51 48 47 41 43 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 8 9 8 9 13 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR -60 -74 -69 -83 -94 -83 -91 -63 -23 29 46 59 9 200 MB DIV -24 -11 -34 -23 -18 -8 -7 24 5 29 0 13 15 LAND (KM) 90 67 39 17 -7 -43 -71 -28 34 198 417 413 347 LAT (DEG N) 30.8 31.2 31.5 31.8 32.1 32.7 33.3 34.0 34.5 35.6 36.9 38.6 40.5 LONG(DEG W) 80.5 80.7 80.8 80.9 81.0 80.9 80.4 78.9 76.4 73.7 70.7 67.7 64.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 3 3 3 3 5 9 11 13 14 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 0 2 6 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 2. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 7. 9. 14. 19. 26. 32. 36. 34. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 14. 19. 25. 32. 35. 32. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962008 INVEST 07/18/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -22.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962008 INVEST 07/18/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY