* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ELIDA EP062008 07/18/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 49 43 38 34 26 21 17 DIS DIS 15 19 24 V (KT) LAND 55 49 43 38 34 26 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 49 45 41 38 34 31 29 28 27 26 25 25 SHEAR (KTS) 13 12 11 10 10 8 11 10 13 7 12 9 8 SHEAR DIR 131 159 163 167 183 166 185 162 172 193 165 209 198 SST (C) 24.1 23.9 23.7 23.7 23.7 24.0 24.1 24.0 24.2 24.5 24.6 24.7 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 104 102 100 100 100 103 104 104 106 109 110 113 116 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.7 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 5 4 5 4 5 6 6 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 45 45 44 43 47 44 43 40 36 37 40 37 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 10 11 9 9 8 7 7 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 60 56 50 53 64 59 66 49 40 31 9 5 -2 200 MB DIV 3 0 -22 -37 -34 -3 -8 -6 -10 8 -13 -6 -11 LAND (KM) 1557 1647 1741 1850 1963 2187 2109 1822 1503 1216 970 649 352 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.5 17.4 17.3 17.2 17.0 16.9 16.7 16.6 16.6 16.7 16.7 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 125.3 126.5 127.7 129.0 130.3 132.8 135.0 137.8 140.9 143.7 146.1 149.4 153.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 12 12 11 12 14 14 12 14 17 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. -20. -20. -20. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -17. -21. -28. -33. -36. -39. -39. -39. -36. -30. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -6. -12. -17. -21. -29. -34. -38. -41. -40. -40. -36. -31. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP062008 ELIDA 07/18/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062008 ELIDA 07/18/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY