* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FAUSTO EP072008 07/18/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 67 70 71 74 70 66 59 52 48 42 36 V (KT) LAND 60 64 67 70 71 74 70 66 59 52 48 42 36 V (KT) LGE mod 60 63 66 67 67 66 64 61 57 52 48 44 39 SHEAR (KTS) 13 14 15 12 14 13 22 17 9 13 2 5 5 SHEAR DIR 27 48 46 61 60 52 56 56 35 35 95 111 208 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.1 25.3 24.7 23.7 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 143 141 139 134 132 130 125 116 110 100 84 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.1 -52.4 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 80 79 78 76 73 72 70 65 60 54 53 49 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 18 19 19 18 19 17 17 15 14 13 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 17 12 11 19 27 29 32 33 42 45 39 17 9 200 MB DIV 60 48 57 82 37 40 0 -11 6 -3 -3 -19 -7 LAND (KM) 654 680 709 734 770 826 867 864 920 982 1045 1174 1266 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.5 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.8 15.4 16.2 17.2 18.1 18.9 19.6 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 106.4 107.3 108.1 109.0 109.8 111.1 112.3 114.2 116.4 118.5 120.2 122.3 124.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 7 8 11 12 10 10 10 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -3. -6. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 12. 16. 11. 7. 1. -6. -11. -17. -23. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 10. 11. 14. 10. 6. -1. -8. -12. -18. -24. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP072008 FAUSTO 07/18/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072008 FAUSTO 07/18/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY