* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/18/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 59 59 59 59 57 51 47 43 42 33 26 V (KT) LAND 55 57 59 59 59 59 57 51 47 43 42 33 26 V (KT) LGE mod 55 57 57 58 57 53 48 45 43 43 43 43 42 SHEAR (KTS) 16 14 17 17 14 14 29 43 38 32 37 19 22 SHEAR DIR 275 236 248 236 244 224 211 200 202 210 212 199 238 SST (C) 25.7 25.3 25.1 24.7 23.2 19.7 16.5 11.8 11.8 12.3 11.8 11.3 11.6 POT. INT. (KT) 113 109 108 107 97 82 75 71 71 69 67 66 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 98 94 95 95 87 76 71 69 68 66 64 63 64 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.3 -54.4 -55.4 -55.9 -54.6 -53.1 -50.3 -48.7 -46.9 -47.5 -47.7 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 55 54 56 53 55 57 51 53 56 61 62 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 18 18 17 17 19 20 19 18 17 22 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 89 74 42 10 9 24 46 84 173 194 187 117 -17 200 MB DIV 31 30 33 10 31 35 56 26 41 28 51 8 51 LAND (KM) 1244 1155 1077 940 841 841 1026 1384 1173 941 662 463 227 LAT (DEG N) 35.5 36.4 37.2 38.9 40.5 43.9 47.5 51.3 56.1 59.3 60.7 61.5 60.5 LONG(DEG W) 53.0 51.8 50.5 48.8 47.1 43.1 39.1 34.1 28.0 21.9 16.1 10.8 5.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 17 21 22 23 24 27 26 19 15 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 16 CX,CY: 11/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -16. -18. -20. -22. -23. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 10. 13. 15. 17. 20. 19. 16. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -22. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -4. -6. -9. -10. -19. -27. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. -4. -8. -12. -13. -22. -29. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/18/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/18/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY