* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 07/18/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 42 48 54 63 67 72 74 75 74 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 42 48 54 63 56 38 44 44 44 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 31 32 35 40 45 45 33 43 51 58 SHEAR (KTS) 23 17 10 12 11 10 12 6 2 7 8 6 14 SHEAR DIR 318 333 290 289 318 267 327 232 299 221 352 336 354 SST (C) 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.7 28.0 27.7 28.1 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 132 134 137 139 140 143 144 148 137 133 138 143 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 134 137 139 140 142 140 142 129 123 126 128 124 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.3 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -53.8 -53.9 -53.2 -53.6 -52.5 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 10 10 10 11 8 11 8 10 7 10 8 700-500 MB RH 67 68 70 68 66 63 66 66 69 69 67 67 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 9 8 8 8 10 10 11 11 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 16 17 25 39 38 34 30 32 28 12 11 26 22 200 MB DIV 35 59 56 40 51 48 9 54 27 82 6 37 18 LAND (KM) 153 198 325 314 237 222 291 228 -23 -16 189 385 349 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.2 14.6 15.1 15.6 16.8 18.0 19.1 19.9 21.0 22.2 23.4 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 71.0 72.4 73.8 75.3 76.8 79.8 82.7 85.3 87.6 89.7 91.6 93.0 94.2 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 15 15 16 14 13 11 11 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 27 28 49 61 74 70 74 57 9999 0 18 49 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 20. 24. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 22. 32. 38. 45. 48. 48. 47. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 12. 18. 24. 33. 37. 42. 44. 45. 44. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 07/18/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 07/18/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY