* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL962008 07/18/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 31 33 35 39 43 49 53 54 53 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 27 27 27 27 33 39 43 44 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 27 27 27 27 33 39 44 49 52 SHEAR (KTS) 18 12 8 11 13 6 5 3 10 5 9 10 3 SHEAR DIR 350 21 350 359 34 55 115 92 55 56 70 77 148 SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.8 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 120 120 119 118 117 117 116 121 119 118 117 121 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 99 98 97 96 96 96 102 102 100 98 101 94 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.3 -54.0 -53.9 -54.4 -54.3 -55.2 -54.5 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 9 11 8 7 10 5 9 7 10 7 8 5 700-500 MB RH 35 36 38 37 39 45 53 50 51 44 42 44 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 10 14 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR -73 -69 -75 -93 -89 -99 -71 -46 -10 12 -15 -33 -23 200 MB DIV -32 -40 -12 -13 -12 -4 30 -1 5 -20 2 -36 13 LAND (KM) 83 59 34 7 -21 -62 -95 -12 95 263 434 533 483 LAT (DEG N) 31.1 31.5 31.8 32.1 32.4 33.0 33.6 34.0 34.1 34.7 35.5 36.5 37.8 LONG(DEG W) 80.5 80.6 80.7 80.8 80.9 80.8 80.3 78.4 75.9 73.2 71.1 69.5 67.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 3 3 3 3 6 9 11 10 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 0 0 9999 9999 9999 0 6 7 8 10 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 5. 9. 13. 15. 16. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 17. 17. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 3. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 15. 19. 25. 28. 30. 30. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 14. 18. 24. 28. 29. 28. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962008 INVEST 07/18/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962008 INVEST 07/18/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY