* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ELIDA EP062008 07/18/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 44 39 34 31 25 21 DIS DIS 16 17 21 24 V (KT) LAND 50 44 39 34 31 25 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 45 41 38 35 32 29 28 27 26 25 24 24 SHEAR (KTS) 8 8 6 7 3 6 5 10 9 8 12 9 19 SHEAR DIR 147 146 160 168 196 156 176 155 199 138 183 218 238 SST (C) 23.6 23.5 23.5 23.6 23.7 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.1 24.3 24.5 24.8 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 99 98 98 99 100 104 104 104 105 107 110 114 120 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.6 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 5 4 5 5 6 5 5 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 42 42 41 42 47 44 42 38 40 39 38 37 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 9 10 10 9 9 6 7 6 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 57 53 51 59 61 52 65 39 40 21 4 -5 -8 200 MB DIV 5 -11 -30 -28 -18 3 -4 -6 6 3 0 8 -10 LAND (KM) 1642 1745 1852 1949 2047 2221 1942 1663 1402 1118 801 457 206 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.6 17.5 17.4 17.3 17.1 16.9 16.8 16.9 17.1 17.2 17.2 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 126.7 128.0 129.2 130.3 131.4 133.9 136.6 139.3 141.8 144.5 147.6 151.2 155.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 12 13 12 12 14 16 18 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 468 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -18. -17. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -6. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -4. -6. -8. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -15. -18. -24. -27. -33. -33. -33. -34. -29. -27. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -6. -11. -16. -19. -25. -29. -36. -35. -34. -33. -29. -26. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP062008 ELIDA 07/18/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062008 ELIDA 07/18/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY