* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/18/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 67 67 66 65 62 59 55 50 38 30 19 V (KT) LAND 65 67 67 67 66 65 62 59 55 50 38 30 19 V (KT) LGE mod 65 67 67 65 61 54 49 45 44 44 43 42 42 SHEAR (KTS) 15 20 19 15 12 20 33 40 29 15 10 19 23 SHEAR DIR 237 227 235 243 219 204 196 199 200 193 232 244 227 SST (C) 25.2 25.0 24.4 22.7 21.1 17.8 12.9 11.7 12.2 11.0 9.9 10.3 11.4 POT. INT. (KT) 109 108 104 94 87 78 72 72 71 68 64 64 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 96 94 92 85 79 73 70 70 69 65 62 62 63 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.7 -55.7 -56.0 -54.9 -54.4 -52.4 -51.7 -49.9 -47.7 -46.4 -48.7 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 56 57 53 52 58 49 47 54 59 50 50 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 18 18 19 22 23 24 24 25 19 18 12 850 MB ENV VOR 78 55 21 16 20 35 45 93 142 133 93 53 -19 200 MB DIV 28 53 29 30 68 72 54 33 29 14 7 10 35 LAND (KM) 1098 991 906 820 792 930 1285 1243 913 669 597 567 363 LAT (DEG N) 36.9 38.1 39.3 41.0 42.7 45.8 50.2 54.5 59.3 62.4 63.5 63.6 61.6 LONG(DEG W) 51.4 49.9 48.4 46.6 44.8 40.9 35.4 29.1 21.4 14.3 9.1 5.4 2.9 STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 19 22 21 25 29 30 28 18 10 9 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 19 CX,CY: 12/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -14. -20. -25. -28. -31. -33. -34. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 15. 18. 20. 20. 18. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -13. -17. -20. -22. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. -1. -2. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -12. -24. -32. -43. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -6. -10. -15. -27. -35. -46. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/18/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/18/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY