* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 07/18/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 42 49 56 65 69 70 71 71 72 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 42 49 56 65 55 56 57 57 58 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 34 38 43 48 44 51 58 65 69 SHEAR (KTS) 15 8 13 11 4 14 5 4 4 9 10 20 9 SHEAR DIR 333 278 286 302 309 295 329 307 98 338 343 320 314 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.1 27.7 28.3 28.2 28.6 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 139 142 141 144 149 140 134 138 136 146 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 137 140 144 140 139 145 135 124 121 118 132 125 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 10 11 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 70 72 73 69 65 66 67 66 64 64 74 69 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 10 9 9 10 10 11 8 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 6 20 38 38 35 32 27 14 -1 -7 13 6 17 200 MB DIV 67 64 47 58 70 -3 17 31 35 -2 29 20 30 LAND (KM) 237 363 304 211 199 335 333 18 103 249 235 393 215 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.8 16.5 17.6 18.8 20.5 22.1 23.0 22.8 23.6 25.1 LONG(DEG W) 72.7 74.2 75.7 77.4 79.0 81.6 84.0 87.0 89.8 91.4 91.5 92.9 95.2 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 16 17 15 13 15 16 12 4 4 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 33 55 63 79 91 80 37 52 5 41 38 47 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 20. 24. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 25. 34. 40. 42. 44. 44. 44. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 12. 19. 26. 35. 39. 40. 41. 41. 42. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 07/18/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 64.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 07/18/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY