* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL962008 07/18/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 31 33 34 37 38 46 49 54 49 45 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 31 33 34 37 38 46 49 54 49 45 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 31 33 35 37 41 45 48 50 53 SHEAR (KTS) 14 9 14 16 13 7 12 15 14 16 9 5 10 SHEAR DIR 21 349 4 31 55 44 68 72 78 91 76 47 12 SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.8 27.0 26.6 26.5 26.3 26.5 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 120 120 119 118 117 118 120 123 119 118 116 119 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 98 98 97 96 97 100 103 101 99 98 100 101 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -55.0 -55.5 -55.5 -55.0 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 8 7 10 8 9 8 10 7 8 6 5 700-500 MB RH 40 39 39 45 44 43 51 47 45 42 45 44 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 14 15 21 15 11 850 MB ENV VOR -72 -81 -101 -94 -90 -99 -86 -63 6 -16 -6 -38 -24 200 MB DIV -44 -11 -3 -10 -32 -1 -10 2 20 11 13 -7 34 LAND (KM) 87 69 50 35 19 14 64 166 242 311 383 501 540 LAT (DEG N) 31.2 31.5 31.8 32.1 32.4 32.7 33.0 32.7 32.9 33.5 34.5 35.7 37.2 LONG(DEG W) 80.4 80.5 80.5 80.4 80.3 79.8 78.7 77.1 75.2 73.4 71.9 70.3 68.0 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 3 3 4 6 7 8 8 9 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 16 11 5 6 11 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 6. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 13. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 3. 3. 8. 3. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 11. 13. 23. 26. 31. 26. 23. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 6. 8. 9. 12. 13. 22. 24. 29. 24. 20. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962008 INVEST 07/18/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962008 INVEST 07/18/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY