* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ELIDA EP062008 07/18/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 35 30 27 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 16 21 24 V (KT) LAND 40 35 30 27 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 35 31 28 26 23 22 21 20 20 20 20 21 SHEAR (KTS) 7 6 7 6 3 7 5 8 5 8 4 7 16 SHEAR DIR 162 177 195 210 203 171 158 161 144 161 230 229 255 SST (C) 23.2 23.2 23.3 23.4 23.7 23.8 23.8 24.0 24.4 24.6 24.7 25.0 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 95 95 96 97 100 101 102 104 108 110 112 115 122 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.4 -54.9 -54.9 -54.8 -55.2 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 42 44 42 48 42 41 42 36 40 34 35 33 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 43 44 54 55 48 57 47 40 29 7 3 -12 -24 200 MB DIV -6 -20 -30 -23 -12 -10 -6 -4 0 0 -3 0 -5 LAND (KM) 1727 1835 1946 2055 2165 2058 1779 1472 1158 856 574 329 270 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 17.9 17.8 17.7 17.6 17.4 17.2 17.0 16.8 16.8 16.9 16.9 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 128.1 129.4 130.6 131.8 133.0 135.4 138.1 141.1 144.2 147.2 150.1 153.3 156.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 11 12 13 15 14 14 14 16 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 459 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -7. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -13. -17. -22. -25. -28. -28. -28. -26. -21. -18. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. 0. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -9. -13. -16. -21. -26. -30. -30. -28. -24. -19. -16. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP062008 ELIDA 07/18/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062008 ELIDA 07/18/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY