* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FAUSTO EP072008 07/18/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 71 73 74 70 65 59 54 46 36 28 22 V (KT) LAND 65 68 71 73 74 70 65 59 54 46 36 28 22 V (KT) LGE mod 65 66 67 66 66 63 58 54 49 45 40 34 28 SHEAR (KTS) 15 12 13 11 12 18 11 3 5 4 8 10 9 SHEAR DIR 41 60 51 41 37 45 54 53 336 230 247 241 258 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.6 26.1 25.4 24.5 23.8 22.6 21.4 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 139 136 134 130 125 118 108 101 89 76 71 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.2 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 5 3 2 1 0 1 700-500 MB RH 77 77 72 73 70 68 64 60 57 52 51 48 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 21 21 21 19 18 16 17 15 13 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 17 26 31 25 24 37 30 37 36 45 31 27 29 200 MB DIV 67 95 49 34 19 1 -7 14 -5 21 -33 -19 -17 LAND (KM) 684 703 731 745 767 764 773 846 899 1035 1169 1282 1415 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.2 14.4 14.9 15.3 16.4 17.3 18.2 19.1 19.8 20.4 21.2 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.8 109.5 110.2 110.8 112.4 114.4 116.4 118.5 120.8 123.2 125.4 127.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -7. -10. -14. -19. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -5. -4. -6. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 3. -2. -8. -12. -19. -29. -37. -43. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 8. 9. 5. 0. -6. -11. -19. -29. -37. -43. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP072008 FAUSTO 07/18/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072008 FAUSTO 07/18/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY