* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/19/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 66 66 65 62 59 56 49 44 37 30 24 V (KT) LAND 65 67 66 66 65 62 59 56 49 44 37 30 24 V (KT) LGE mod 65 66 64 61 56 50 45 43 43 43 44 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 21 20 24 18 20 31 28 8 3 10 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 242 235 245 240 214 199 185 198 189 247 51 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.9 23.9 22.2 20.5 18.4 14.9 10.8 11.9 11.5 7.8 9.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 100 91 85 79 74 71 72 70 66 65 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 95 88 82 78 74 71 69 69 68 64 63 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -55.5 -55.6 -54.6 -54.5 -52.5 -50.8 -49.2 -48.7 -46.3 -45.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 56 53 54 57 50 46 58 51 56 63 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 21 22 23 25 26 25 20 20 20 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 15 7 5 16 33 132 147 169 152 140 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 57 53 86 94 20 21 48 16 -16 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 941 845 785 773 830 1076 1489 1173 916 913 901 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.6 40.0 41.4 43.2 44.9 49.1 54.3 58.9 63.3 66.3 66.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.7 48.2 46.6 44.7 42.7 38.3 33.3 26.8 18.8 10.6 4.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 21 23 24 28 30 29 26 17 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 22 CX,CY: 14/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -17. -23. -27. -30. -33. -35. -35. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 16. 19. 21. 20. 18. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -21. -23. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -9. -15. -19. -25. -32. -38. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -9. -16. -21. -28. -35. -41. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/19/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/19/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY