* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * THREE AL032008 07/19/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 27 28 29 31 32 34 38 42 44 43 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 27 28 29 31 32 34 38 42 44 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 27 29 30 33 36 40 45 49 SHEAR (KTS) 8 15 15 14 10 9 15 15 13 9 10 13 14 SHEAR DIR 343 359 29 59 58 50 54 65 110 116 3 7 279 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.0 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 119 119 118 118 118 120 119 116 116 115 116 115 87 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 98 97 97 98 100 99 96 95 95 98 99 78 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.5 -53.9 -53.9 -54.6 -55.1 -55.8 -55.2 -55.4 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 7 7 10 11 6 11 8 11 9 11 7 6 700-500 MB RH 39 38 40 42 42 47 43 43 46 51 52 55 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 8 9 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR -79 -99 -91 -94 -107 -83 -80 -30 -33 -30 5 43 57 200 MB DIV -13 0 -7 -32 -28 17 -1 21 -9 40 40 33 32 LAND (KM) 108 76 43 28 24 62 156 196 240 227 228 289 241 LAT (DEG N) 31.7 32.1 32.4 32.7 33.0 33.4 33.4 33.4 33.6 34.2 35.3 37.4 39.9 LONG(DEG W) 79.8 79.8 79.8 79.5 79.2 78.0 76.3 75.2 74.3 73.9 73.4 72.0 68.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 4 5 6 6 4 4 5 9 15 17 HEAT CONTENT 4 1 1 0 0 2 12 9 6 6 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 5. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 6. 8. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 15. 19. 21. 21. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 13. 17. 19. 18. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032008 THREE 07/19/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032008 THREE 07/19/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY