* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 07/19/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 40 44 51 61 68 74 76 77 75 73 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 40 44 51 61 49 54 56 57 55 53 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 35 40 46 40 46 52 58 63 65 SHEAR (KTS) 10 11 9 3 8 9 5 8 5 10 13 17 15 SHEAR DIR 284 288 299 293 245 333 232 20 293 334 297 320 286 SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.5 27.8 27.9 28.6 28.3 27.8 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 137 140 142 142 144 147 145 135 136 146 141 133 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 141 142 142 143 144 139 127 126 133 125 117 111 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -52.6 -53.0 -52.3 -53.1 -52.6 -53.6 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 11 11 8 11 8 10 7 11 9 13 700-500 MB RH 71 71 70 65 64 67 71 73 71 67 68 66 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 11 12 12 13 12 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 23 42 45 44 35 21 22 7 -7 -9 -7 -18 4 200 MB DIV 73 56 67 73 45 -24 54 24 73 -2 37 8 22 LAND (KM) 356 286 211 180 235 311 166 -66 147 381 317 164 28 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.5 17.1 18.4 19.7 20.9 22.3 23.7 25.2 26.2 27.0 LONG(DEG W) 74.0 75.6 77.1 78.7 80.2 83.1 85.8 88.3 90.6 92.6 94.1 95.6 97.1 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 16 16 15 14 13 12 11 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 55 65 80 89 70 80 90 9999 9 42 37 36 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 20. 24. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 12. 11. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. -1. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 31. 38. 45. 47. 48. 47. 45. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 6. 10. 14. 21. 31. 38. 44. 46. 47. 45. 43. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 07/19/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 71.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 07/19/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY