* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ELIDA EP062008 07/19/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 30 27 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 17 20 23 V (KT) LAND 35 30 27 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 30 27 24 22 20 18 17 16 16 16 16 17 SHEAR (KTS) 5 6 5 3 5 7 5 7 5 6 7 13 14 SHEAR DIR 168 188 224 238 190 221 179 184 145 212 215 232 239 SST (C) 23.0 23.1 23.2 23.4 23.5 23.6 23.7 24.1 24.4 24.5 24.7 25.2 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 93 94 95 97 98 99 101 105 108 109 112 116 121 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.6 -54.9 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 41 42 44 40 42 45 39 40 37 40 36 37 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 9 8 9 7 7 6 6 5 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 40 50 50 43 37 51 35 25 10 5 2 -3 -19 200 MB DIV -8 -21 -27 -24 -4 -1 -4 -1 7 0 0 -10 -1 LAND (KM) 1810 1917 2026 2137 2187 1948 1671 1384 1081 779 490 268 201 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.1 18.0 17.9 17.8 17.7 17.4 17.2 17.0 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 129.3 130.5 131.7 132.9 134.1 136.4 139.1 141.9 144.9 147.9 150.9 153.8 156.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 12 13 14 14 14 14 13 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 465 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. -10. -10. -8. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -13. -16. -19. -24. -25. -24. -21. -19. -17. -14. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -8. -12. -14. -18. -23. -25. -25. -21. -18. -15. -12. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP062008 ELIDA 07/19/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062008 ELIDA 07/19/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY